Everyone lies. Data doesn’t. Gamblers will tell you they bet for fun. They say they play to relax, to chase the thrill, or because they have a “lucky feeling.” However, their betting slips, deposit patterns, and session times tell a different story.

Big Data has quietly exposed the truths behind human behavior in ways that no survey, focus group, or self-reported questionnaire ever could. 

People often think they know why they do what they do. In reality, their choices, whether it’s placing a bet, searching for information online, or even deciding which slot game to play, are shaped by hidden patterns.

The iGaming industry has always chased the edge, from better algorithms to sharper segmentation. But the real advantage? Knowing your players better than they know themselves.

The Death of the “Gut Feeling”

For years, many affiliates relied on intuition – the “feel” of what works. They trusted experience, anecdotal evidence, and old playbooks. But as seen in finance, sports, and tech, data has upended every assumption.

Think of basketball scouting. Coaches used to believe in the eye test, looking for players with “killer instincts” or “explosive energy.” Then data analysts ran the numbers and found that the most predictive indicator of NBA success wasn’t highlight-reel athleticism; it was something no one had considered before: family stability.

Similarly, in horse racing, bloodlines were thought to be the golden metric. However, when a Harvard dropout applied predictive modeling, he found that a horse’s left ventricle size was the best indicator of performance, not its pedigree. The old ways of thinking? Shattered.

iGaming is facing the same moment. The question may not be who is betting; it’s why, when, and how often.

What Search Data Reveals About Betting Intent

If you want to predict the next wave of bettors, don’t ask them what they want. Look at what they’re searching for.

Search trends have already been used to predict election outcomes, disease outbreaks, and financial market shifts (often better than traditional forecasting methods). So, what does the search data say about gambling?

• Players Google symptoms of gambling addiction months before they ever seek help.
• Increased searches for “best casino bonus” spike right after major sporting events, not before.
• The most successful affiliates don’t just target “casino bonus” – they dominate adjacent niches that signal high betting intent (such as “how to make money online” or “best passive income strategies”).

Search behavior exposes pre-deposit psychology. It shows when someone is on the fence, considering their next move, or actively looking for a reason to pull the trigger on a bet. This is where affiliates get ahead.

The Betting Habits Hidden in Plain Sight

Every gambler thinks they’re unique. They’re not.

Most player decisions follow predictable patterns:

• High-rollers don’t start as high-rollers. They test the waters with small, frequent deposits before taking bigger risks.
• Self-proclaimed “strategic” bettors often wager impulsively. The number of users who claim to “never chase losses” yet deposit immediately after a losing streak? Shockingly high.
• Session time is the biggest indicator of retention. Players who gamble at the same time every day (even for small amounts) are exponentially more likely to remain active long-term.

The Boss Partners Edge

Affiliates aren’t just traffic sources; they’re behavioral economists in disguise.

Boss Partners operates on this principle. Every campaign, every brand, and every strategy is backed by behavioral intelligence, ensuring that insights (not just assumptions) shape success. 

If that’s the kind of partnership you’re after, this is where it starts.

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Revenue will be in the high end of latest revised guidance of 355-375 mEUR, where EBITDA before special items is to exceed the guidance of 100-110 mEUR.

Revenue for the full year of approximately 371 mEUR (target 355-375 mEUR). EBITDA before special items for the full year of approximately 113 mEUR (target 100-110 mEUR). Net debt to EBITDA before special items below 3x (target below 3x).

The EBITDA before special items was driven by revenue reaching the upper end of guidance, and an earlier-than-anticipated impact of the implemented 50 mEUR cost efficiency program.

Better Collective will release its Q4 including financial guidance for 2025 on February 19, 2025, after market close.

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The company’s total revenue dropped by almost €50 million, a reduction of 35% compared to the year before, with the largest losses seen in its sports betting activities, which accounted for two-thirds of its total revenue losses.

Meanwhile, the number of new customers making a deposit fell by 30% to just under 129,000.

Catena Media attributed the losses to underperformance and competitive pressures in its North American market, which last year accounted for almost nine-tenths (88%) of its total revenue.

Last year, the company’s North American revenue dropped by almost €44 million – a reduction of a third from 2023.

The results for the last quarter of the year paint a similar picture to the overall results, with revenue from October to December down by more than €4 million – a 30% drop from the previous quarter – and new depositing customers down by one fifth.

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Recurring revenue was 62 mEUR, up 26% implying higher quality revenue. Recurring revenue makes up 62% of total group revenue. The recurring revenue growth comes from a good development in revenue share income, an above expected sports win margin, as well as acquisitions adding recurring advertising revenue. During the quarter, there was a boost in June due to the European Championship. However, with clubs taking an earlier break ahead of the tournament and the 2022 World Cup shifting games into early 2023, more than 20% fewer matches were played in major European leagues during Q2 2024.

Group EBITDA before special items was 29 mEUR, with a margin of 29%. This is as expected given the recent acquisitions of Playmaker Capital and Playmaker HQ with limited near-term contribution. Furthermore, there has been an increase in investments into building out adtech competencies and sales competencies for AdVantage as well as other AI investments. This compares to EBITDA growth of 135% and a margin of 37% last year, aided by the extraordinary performance from North America including heavy upfront payments both for CPA and hybrid contracts. The sports win margin was above expectations for Q2 this year, just like last year.

The increase in costs in North America stems from the acquisitions of Playmaker Capital and Playmaker HQ. Playmaker Capital is known for its backend loaded seasonality, hence the EBITDA contribution during the first half has expectedly been low. The margin contribution will increase during the second half of the year. Further, the acquisition came with overhead costs in Canada, all of which has been incorporated in the North American cost base. Additionally, the Playmaker HQ acquisition came with additional costs as well as underperformance. Excluding the two acquisitions, costs are down versus last year for North America.

Co-founder & CEO of Better Collective, Jesper Søgaard comments: “Thanks to a great team effort, we managed to deliver a strong Q2 in a time of changing market conditions. Our existing business is back to organic growth, and I am pleased to see that our diversified strategy has performed as envisioned”.

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The agreement marks the second larger media partnership for Raketech in Denmark, following the agreement reached with VBET earlier this quarter.

This will enable continued growth in Denmark for the company’s sports products, and further diversification of revenue streams, in line with Raketech’s long-term strategy. Raketech already has ongoing partnerships with state-owned operators in the industry, such as Svenska Spel in Sweden.

“We are happy to announce a three-year media partnership with Danske Spil, expanding our media offering while continuing to provide market-leading online assets to the Danish market. The partnership marks a milestone for Raketech in Denmark and is an endorsement of our product offering of supporting large, successful operators that demand high standards of execution”, says Johan Svensson, Acting CEO of Raketech.

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Revenue thereby exceeded the group’s target while EBITDA ended in the high end of the range. During 2023, Better Collective has upgraded its financial targets twice due to strong operational performance and accretive acquisitions.

The first guidance set out in the beginning of the year was targeting revenues of 290-300 mEUR and EBITDA of 90-100 mEUR.

The latest guidance targeted revenues of 315-325 mEUR and EBITDA of 105-115, hence exceeding the revenue target and being in the top end of the range of the EBITDA-range. The net debt to EBITDA target was met. 

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The deal sees OGM further expand into Europe’s second-largest betting market to consolidate its position as the country’s number-one sports betting advertising company, organically complementing its other media partnerships already operational with Gazzetta (La Gazzetta dello Sport) and DAZN, which leverage tens of millions of unique users and two popular TV shows between them.SuperScommesse furnishes OGM with deep local expertise, featuring a team that has proven itself adept at driving sustained growth in the market, allied to a recognisable and trusted local-language brand.

In addition, its tech stack and tools will deliver network efficiencies to the acquiring group’s brands in other markets, while OGM’s own technology will improve SuperScommesse’s services and fan engagement across a loyal customer base.Stuart Simms, CEO of Oddschecker Media Group, said of the acquisition: “As the growth of sports betting in this sports-mad market continues apace, we wanted to double down on our presence in this key territory.

We see SuperScommesse as the ideal strategic complement to our strong Italian footprint.“We’re looking forward to servicing its customer base with an enhanced product that combines the Oddschecker DNA with its well-regarded brand name and local expertise in a market that still has huge growth potential as it builds out an online, cashless identity.“

This digital tide is only rolling one way, so the synergies are as obvious as they are natural: the Italian market allows for odds comparison as a consumer service, and we remain the pre-eminent odds comparison provider.”This latest acquisition will further bolster the effectiveness of the Confido Network, a cutting-edge affiliate partnership network – which covers over 1,000 deals from 200+ global operators – announced by OGM earlier in November 2023.

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• Revenues for the second quarter of 2023 are expected to reach EUR 17.5 million, following a stronger than anticipated development primarily within Sub-affiliation/Network.
• EBITDA is estimated to increase to approximately EUR 5.4 million for the quarter as a consequence of the strong Sub-affiliation/Network revenues, coupled with continuously solid performance from the previous Casumba acquisition.

As a result, the company has decided to upgrade its full year guidance.

• Revenues, excluding acquisitions, are expected to amount to EUR 65-70 million, up from EUR 60-65 million.
• EBITDA is expected to come in between EUR 23-25 million, up from EUR 20-24 million.
• Free cash flow for the full year is expected to increase to EUR 13-15 million, up from EUR 11-13 million. 

The abovementioned figures are estimates and have not been reviewed by the Company’s auditor. Complete information will be reported in connection with Raketech’s interim report for the second quarter, which will be published on 17 Augus

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The partnership is co-branded with Better Collective’s Polish flagship sports media, Zagranie.com which will be delivering sports betting content, data and statistics to the polish media’s new sports and sports betting section.

Better Collective has established a new media partnership with one of Poland’s top-ranking horizontal portals, Wirtualna Polska with more than 22 million monthly visitors. Wirtualna Polska operates various specialized websites and e-commerce websites, and is also the largest Polish sports media provider with approximately 11.5 million monthly visitors. The agreement is for Better Collective to provide WP.pl’s users with high quality sports content, betting odds, and analyses via its new sports and sports betting section.

The content will be delivered by Better Collective’s flagship sports media, www.Zagranie.com, which is a popular Polish sports media, providing professional sports analysis and data while allowing fans to share, reviews and tips. The partnership is expected to launch by the end of March, and sport fans will be able to access the new content directly on www.WP.pl. 

The last couple of years, Better Collective has been fine tuning its media partnership business, which has come to play a significant part in the Group’s performance. Among others, Better Collective is currently partnering with well-established and authoritative news media outlets like the Telegraph and New York Post.

Michael Kopec, Director Better Collective Northeast Europe: “Better Collective has extensive experience in producing data, betting tips and sports content of high quality to inform sports fans at all levels of experience. We are excited to partner with Wirtualna Polska, so we together can provide the continuous depth and breadth of content that sports fans appreciate.”

Łukasz Gołąbowski, Regional Manager Wirtualna Polska: “Wirtualna Polska was Poland’s first internet portal, and we have a large and loyal following. Daily, we prepare new content so our readers can access the latest information and stay up-to-date on trivia from the world of entertainment. Partnering with Better Collective means that we also will be able to provide timely and professional sports and sports betting content so Polish fans can always get the latest information about their favorite sport, team, or athlete”.

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oddschecker will provide Yardbarker with its expertise in content marketing and SEO to launch a new sports betting hub featured on Yardbarker.com. This new destination will produce a content mix that caters to both sports fans and bettors alike who wish to explore and compare different sports betting markets, and ultimately convert to become customers of leading online sports betting operators. oddschecker’s unique technology will also enhance engagement of existing Yardbarker content and drive further monetization through conversion tools and widgets.

oddschecker is the world’s leading odds comparison brand for sports betting, providing customers the ability to find the best value and the strongest offers from sports betting operators globally. Additionally, oddschecker’s widely sourced odds comparisons and expert picks give sports bettors actionable insights to improve their overall sports betting experience. In connection with this alliance, oddschecker will expand beyond its core regional domain for the first time as it aims to repeat the success to date of oddschecker.com in the North American market.

Yardbarker is a leading U.S.-based digital sports media property that specializes in delivering topical and evergreen content to North American sports fans. Yardbarker recently launched a sports betting-focused newsletter, Bark Bets, and its partnership with oddschecker further demonstrates the strategic objective to provide its user base with more of the best-in-class sports betting content that they value.

“We’re delighted to be working alongside Yardbarker, who have created such a fantastic sports content brand and destination,” said Matt Mirman, oddschecker US Senior Vice President. “With strong demand from sports fans for high quality, engaging and complimentary sports betting content, we’re excited about the significant potential that this partnership creates.”

The betting hub is expected to go live in September, launching concurrently with the start of the 2022 NFL season, an important milestone for oddschecker and Yardbarker. The upcoming NFL campaign is expected to build on the momentum of last season’s strong ratings and high engagement levels. As online sports betting continues to regulate in key U.S. states, many NFL fans will experience their first full NFL season with the added excitement and engagement that sports betting provides.

“I have known the team at oddschecker for many years, going back to my time at The Stars Group. Nick and the team are, quite simply, great at what they do,” said Jordan Gnat, Playmaker CEO. “We have been clear that Playmaker has a big opportunity in the affiliate space and our strategic options have been buy, build, or partner. With oddschecker, the partnership choice became the clear path forward.”

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